How did Rodante Marcoleta win as senator in the 2025 elections?
He was excluded in the top 12 of all pre-election surveys from 2023 to 2025.
He was rejected in the top 12 by every province in almost a third of all the regions in the country.
He was omitted in the top 12 by almost 85% of the entire Luzon (excluding NCR).
He was excepted in the top 12 by more than half of the whole of Visayas.
Excluded, rejected, omitted, excepted and more but Marcoleta still managed to win, somehow.
This article will study the curious case of Rodante Marcoleta, senator of the Republic of the Philippines, 6th place in the 2025 elections.
EXCLUDED IN THE TOP 12 OF ALL PRE-ELECTION SURVEYS FROM 2023-2025
Marcoleta never entered the winner’s circle in any of the pre-election surveys conducted from 2023 to 2025. The highest rank (straight ranking, not range) he was able to reach was 16th in the March 2025 survey.
| DATE | RANK |
| December 2023 | 43 |
| March 2024 | 55 |
| June 2024 | 41 |
| September 2024 | 43 |
| November 2024 | 24 |
| January 2025 | 23 |
| February 2025 | 21 |
| March 2025 | 16 |
| April 2025 | 17 |
A quick look at the numbers of Marcoleta would immediately reveal that, by and large, given his distance from the top and the tightness of the race, anybody can say he had zero chance of winning.
“Given his distance from the top and the tightness of the race, anybody can say he had zero chance of winning”.
He was rank number 43 in 2023. He averaged in rank number 41 in all the four quarterly surveys of 2024. He averaged in rank number 19 in all the four quarterly surveys of 2025. These are all outside the winner’s circle. There are only 12 slots.
But Marcoleta still won, somehow.
Note: All surveys referred to in this article were conducted by Pulse Asia.
REJECTED IN THE TOP 12 BY EVERY PROVINCE IN ALMOST A THIRD OF ALL THE REGIONS IN THE COUNTRY
Marcoleta lost in a total of 25 provinces located in five regions (Region I, Region II, Region IV-A, Region V and Region VI). Not a single province in all these five regions gave him a win.
“Not a single province in all these five regions gave him a win.”
In the Ilocos Region, Marcoleta lost in all its four provinces. His highest rank was in Ilocos Sur at 16th place.
| REGION I (ILOCOS REGION) | RANK |
| La Union | 20 |
| Pangasinan | 19 |
| Ilocos Norte | 17 |
| Ilocos Sur | 16 |
In Cagayan Valley, Marcoleta lost in all its five provinces. His highest rank was in Nueva Vizcaya and Isabela at 16th place.
| REGION II (CAGAYAN VALLEY) | RANK |
| Batanes | 23 |
| Cagayan | 19 |
| Quirino | 17 |
| Nueva Vizcaya | 16 |
| Isabela | 16 |
In MIMAROPA, Marcoleta lost in all its five provinces. His highest rank was in Occidental Mindoro at 15th place.
| REGION IV-A (MIMAROPA) | RANK |
| Marinduque | 22 |
| Romblon | 18 |
| Palawan | 17 |
| Oriental Mindoro | 17 |
| Occidental Mindoro | 15 |
In Bicol, Marcoleta lost in all its six provinces. His highest rank was in Masbate at 13th place.
| REGION V (BICOL) | RANK |
| Albay | 27 |
| Camarines Sur | 27 |
| Catanduanes | 25 |
| Sorsogon | 24 |
| Camarines Norte | 20 |
| Masbate | 13 |
In Western Visayas, Marcoleta lost in all its five provinces. His highest rank was in Aklan at 18th place.
| REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS) | RANK |
| Guimaras | 21 |
| Iloilo | 20 |
| Antique | 19 |
| Capiz | 19 |
| Aklan | 18 |
But Marcoleta still won, somehow.
OMITTED IN THE TOP 12 BY ALMOST 85% OF THE ENTIRE LUZON (EXCLUDING NCR)
Marcoleta lost in 32 out of the 38 provinces in the seven regions of Luzon. He totally missed out on 85% of the largest island grouping in the country comprising 45% of the total voting population.
“He totally missed out on 85% of the largest island grouping in the country comprising 45% of the total voting population.”
| PROVINCE | RANK |
| Camarines Sur | 27 |
| Albay | 27 |
| Catanduanes | 25 |
| Sorsogon | 24 |
| Batanes | 23 |
| Marinduque | 22 |
| La Union | 20 |
| Camarines Norte | 20 |
| Ifugao | 20 |
| Pangasinan | 19 |
| Quezon | 19 |
| Cagayan | 19 |
| Apayao | 19 |
| Romblon | 18 |
| Batangas | 17 |
| Oriental Mindoro | 17 |
| Palawan | 17 |
| Ilocos Norte | 17 |
| Quirino | 17 |
| Isabela | 16 |
| Zambales | 16 |
| Ilocos Sur | 16 |
| Nueva Vizcaya | 16 |
| Aurora | 16 |
| Mountain Province | 16 |
| Laguna | 15 |
| Nueva Ecija | 15 |
| Occidental Mindoro | 15 |
| Bulacan | 13 |
| Masbate | 13 |
| Benguet | 13 |
| Kalinga | 13 |
But Marcoleta still won, somehow.
EXCEPTED IN THE TOP 12 BY MORE THAN HALF OF THE WHOLE VISAYAS
Marcoleta lost in nine out of the 16 provinces in the four regions of Visayas. He finished between 17th place and 21st place in these provinces.
“He finished between 17th place and 21st place in these provinces.”
| PROVINCE | RANK |
| Guimaras | 21 |
| Iloilo | 20 |
| Northern Samar | 19 |
| Antique | 19 |
| Capiz | 19 |
| Aklan | 18 |
| Negros Occidental | 18 |
| Eastern Samar | 17 |
| Samar | 17 |
But Marcoleta still won, somehow.
MANNA FROM HEAVEN
Excluded, rejected, omitted, excepted and more. So how did Rodante Marcoleta manage to win, and land at 6th place, in the 2025 senatorial elections?
Mindanao!
“A whopping 93% of Mindanao delivered the votes for Marcoleta.”
A whopping 93% of Mindanao delivered the votes for Marcoleta. Considering that he is not even from Mindanao, winning in 26 out of its 28 provinces in six regions is nothing short of a miracle. And, to top it off, he finished in the top six of 25 out of the 26 provinces where he won (3rd place in 14 provinces, 4th place in five provinces, 5th place in six provinces). From zero chance of winning to 6th place overall really quick. Wow!
| PROVINCE | RANK |
| Bukidnon | 3 |
| Cotabato | 3 |
| Misamis Oriental | 3 |
| Davao del Sur | 3 |
| Sulu | 3 |
| South Cotabato | 3 |
| Zamboanga del Sur | 3 |
| Sultan Kudarat | 3 |
| Agusan del Sur | 3 |
| Lanao del Norte | 3 |
| Lanao del Sur | 3 |
| Maguindanao del Sur | 3 |
| Zamboanga Sibugay | 3 |
| Davao Occidental | 3 |
| Davao del Norte | 4 |
| Davao de Oro | 4 |
| Davao Oriental | 4 |
| Agusan del Norte | 4 |
| Sarangani | 4 |
| Surigao del Sur | 5 |
| Surigao del Norte | 5 |
| Maguindanao del Norte | 5 |
| Basilan | 5 |
| Tawi-Tawi | 5 |
| Dinagat Islands | 5 |
| Zamboanga del Norte | 8 |
BONUS
In addition, Marcoleta performed relatively well in independent cities nationwide as well as in NCR.
“He won in 65% of all independent cities nationwide.”
He won in 65% of all independent cities nationwide. He even landed in the top six of 10 out of the 13 independent cities where he won. There are a total of 20 independent cities nationwide.
| INDEPENDENT CITY | RANK |
| Davao | 3 |
| Cagayan de Oro | 3 |
| General Santos | 3 |
| Iligan | 3 |
| Butuan | 3 |
| Ormoc | 3 |
| Lapu-Lapu | 4 |
| Cebu | 5 |
| Cotabato | 5 |
| Zamboanga | 6 |
| Angeles | 10 |
| Baguio | 10 |
| Puerto Princesa | 12 |
“He won in almost 60% of NCR.”
He won in almost 60% of NCR. He entered the winner’s circle in 10 out of the 16 cities and one municipality of NCR.
| CITY | RANK |
| Quezon City | 8 |
| Caloocan | 8 |
| Valenzuela | 10 |
| Manila | 11 |
| Pasay | 11 |
| Malabon | 11 |
| San Juan | 11 |
| Taguig | 12 |
| Marikina | 12 |
| Muntinlupa | 12 |
THE MARCOLETA FORMULA
Win in 15% of the provinces of the entire Luzon (excluding NCR).
Win in almost 50% of Visayas.
Win in almost 60% of NCR.
Win in 65% of independent cities nationwide.
Win in almost 95% of Mindanao.
This is “The Marcoleta Formula” in winning as a senator of the Republic of the Philippines and at 6th place at that.
Still curious? Now we all know.
