First published: February 9, 2021 | Last updated: July 24, 2025
Are there sure winners in a senatorial election?
The first post-EDSA senatorial election was held on May 11, 1987. At that time, the country still elected 24 Senators. In 1992, 24 Senators were likewise elected, but the first 12 who obtained the highest number of votes served for six years, while the remaining 12 served for only three years. In 1995, only 12 Senators were elected into office.
The second post-EDSA senatorial election was held on May 11, 1992. At this time, the incumbent Senators elected in 1987 were up for reelection. Three among those who ran for reelection lost. And this is when this study will begin counting as far as the victory, or defeat, of incumbent senators are concerned.
“A total of 21 incumbent Senators lost their bid for reelection.”
Starting in the 1992 senatorial election until the latest senatorial election in 2025, or 12 senatorial elections in a row, a total of 21 incumbent Senators lost their bid for reelection. In addition, a total of 28 former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in this more than three decades of senatorial elections every three years. Seven among those who attempted a comeback as a returning Senator even lost twice in their double attempts at a return in different election cycles.
“A total of 28 former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate.”
In the latest senatorial elections of 2025, almost 30% of reelectionists lost. In 2022, more than 20% of reelectionists lost. In 2019, almost 30% of reelectionists lost. In 2016, 40% of reelectionists lost. In both 2013 and 2010, all reelectionists successfully defended their seats. In 2007, less than 20% of reelectionists lost. In 2004, 60% of reelectionists lost. In 2001, more than 30% of reelectionists lost. In 1998, 40% of reelectionists lost. In 1995, more than 30% of reelectionists lost. In 1992, almost 20% of reelectionists lost.
“In 2004, 60% of reelectionists lost.”
As for those attempting a comeback, two former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in 2025. Two also in 2022. Four in 2019. All four returning Senators from previous Congresses made a successful comeback in 2016. Five former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in 2013. One in 2010. Four in 2007. Six in 2004. Four in 2001. All four returning Senators from previous Congresses made a successful comeback in 1998. Two former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in 1995. One in 1992. Four in 1987.
“Five former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in 2013. Six in 2004.”
“Seven among those who attempted a comeback as a returning Senator even lost twice in their double attempts at a return in different election cycles.”
Given this mind-boggling rundown of numbers through the years, it could be said with certainty that there is no assurance or guarantee for an incumbent Senator to be reelected into office even after serving six years in the position. In addition, there is likewise no assurance or guarantee for a returning Senator to once again occupy the office he or she once held.
“Being a topnotcher in a previous senatorial election does not mean an automatic victory.”
Furthermore, being a topnotcher in a previous senatorial election does not mean an automatic victory in one’s bid to return to the Senate. Mar Roxas ranked 1st in 2004, then lost in 2019. Tito Sotto ranked 1st in 1992, and 3rd in 1998, but lost in 2007. Bong Revilla ranked 1st in 2010, and 2nd in 2004, but lost in 2025.
“Having been elected as Senator for multiple terms in the past does not mean an automatic victory.”
Moreover, having been elected as Senator for multiple terms in the past does not mean an automatic victory in their bid to return to the Senate. Serge Osmeña won thrice in 1995, 2001 and 2010, but lost in 2016 (as a reelectionist) and in 2019. Juan Ponce Enrile won thrice in 1987, 1995 and 2010, but lost in 2001 (as a reelectionist) and in 2019. John Osmeña won thrice in 1987, 1992 and 1998, but lost in 2004 (as a reelectionist) and in 2007. Gringo Honasan won four times in 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2013 but lost in 2022 and 2025. Bong Revilla won thrice in 2004, 2010 and 2019 but lost in 2025 (as a reelectionist).
“In 2028, there will be EIGHT incumbent Senators who are qualified to run for a second term.”
In 2028, there will be EIGHT incumbent Senators who are qualified to run for a second term. They are reelectionists Chiz Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, Alan Cayetano, JV Ejercito, Loren Legarda, Robin Padilla, Raffy Tulfo and Mark Villar. They can all run again if they all want to run again.
“There will also be EIGHT former Senators who may decide to attempt a comeback in 2028.”
There will also be EIGHT former Senators who may decide to attempt a comeback in 2028. They are Sonny Angara, Nancy Binay, Koko Pimentel, Grace Poe, Bong Revilla, Francis Tolentino, Manny Pacquiao, Gringo Honasan, and maybe even more, or perhaps less. Revilla and Tolentino were incumbent Senators who lost this 2025 and Pacquiao and Honasan were returning Senators who lost this 2025. They can all run again if they all want to run again.
This is purely speculative, but if Mark Villar runs for higher office or any lower office or does not run at all, then his mother Cynthia Villar can stage a comeback. To be sure, they will not both run alongside each other. In all probability, only one Villar will run in one and the same senatorial election, in 2028 and beyond.
This is also speculative, but just in case Nancy Binay decides not to run for reelection as Mayor, then she can stage a comeback, or if she decides to run for reelection as Mayor, then she may let another Binay run for the Senate, like her sister Abby (who just lost this 2025 in her first attempt to become a Senator) or her brother Junjun (who may already be free from any and all legal impediments in 2028).
This is likewise speculative, but since this already happened before (in the 2016 senatorial election when Lito Lapid was already term-limited), Lito Lapid who is again term-limited in 2028 may field his son Mark Lapid for another attempt at becoming a Senator like himself.
Whatever happens then, this nerve-racking question remains: who among the reelectionists and the returning will be included in our next updated list of the winners who lost?
