The Department of Agriculture (DA) is strengthening measures to protect rice production from the impacts of an intensifying El Niño, building on improved seeds, expanded irrigation, better farm monitoring, and lessons from previous drought episodes.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the country is now better equipped to manage prolonged dry spells, with advances in agricultural technology and more responsive interventions to help farmers cope with climate-related risks.
“We have more tools now to mitigate the impact,” Tiu Laurel said, citing improved rice varieties, solar-powered irrigation systems, better weather monitoring, and more responsive crop calendars.
Lessons from previous El Niño episodes have also helped the government strengthen its preparations to protect agricultural production, maintain adequate food supplies, and minimize potential price pressures.
Meanwhile, the DA had anticipated the adjustment in palay production this year, taking into account the challenges affecting farmers’ planting decisions and harvested areas.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that third-quarter palay production reached 3.08 million metric tons, around 18 percent lower than the 3.75 million MT recorded during the same period last year.
DA Undersecretary Christopher Morales, who oversees the Rice Industry Development Program, said the decline was anticipated, largely due to reduced harvested areas as farmers faced higher production costs.
“We anticipated the decline for the 3rd quarter production, mainly because of the reduction in harvested area.”
“We anticipated the decline for the 3rd quarter production, mainly because of the reduction in harvested area. High fertilizer and fuel costs affected farmers’ investment in inputs and, in some cases, their planting decisions,” Morales said.
He emphasized that the production decline should not be attributed solely to El Niño. Other factors also affected farmers’ production decisions and cropping schedules, including high fertilizer and fuel costs, delayed planting, irrigation constraints, farmers’ reluctance to take production risks amid high costs and uncertain returns, and weather disturbances, including heavy rains associated with the southwest monsoon or Habagat.
While the DA continues to address these immediate production challenges, the more significant effects of El Niño on rice production are anticipated during the first semester of 2027, particularly during the dry-season cropping period. The extent of the impact will depend on the severity and duration of dry conditions, water availability, and the effectiveness of timely interventions.
Based on current estimates, full-year palay production in 2026 could be around 1 million metric tons lower than the previous year’s output.
“Government assistance and the National Food Authority’s palay procurement program have helped provide farmers with an alternative market for their harvests.”
Morales said government assistance and the National Food Authority’s palay procurement program have helped provide farmers with an alternative market for their harvests, supporting their income and encouraging continued production.
During the 1997–98 El Niño, palay production plunged by about 1.9 million MT from the previous year. Since then, the country has expanded irrigation, developed improved rice varieties, strengthened weather monitoring, and refined crop calendars to help farmers adjust planting schedules and better manage drought conditions.
To prepare for the anticipated El Niño, the DA is strengthening interventions to improve water availability, promote climate-resilient rice varieties, enhance farm monitoring, and help farmers adjust planting schedules based on local weather and water conditions.
The government is also pursuing additional resources to support measures that will mitigate the potential effects of El Niño on agriculture, including interventions to help farmers manage production costs and sustain farm productivity.
The DA aims to translate these preparations into more resilient harvests, ensure timely assistance reaches farmers, and maintain adequate rice supplies despite increasingly challenging weather conditions.
