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WHAT WERE THE 35 MOST DIFFICULT PROVINCES TO PENETRATE FOR PARTY-LIST GROUPS IN 2019?

In an election where 40% of incumbent party-list groups lost in their reelection bid, anybody and everybody would wonder why, and how.

This article will not attempt to answer why 17 out of the 46 incumbent party-list groups lost in their reelection bid in the 2019 midterm elections. It will, however, emphasize how difficult it was, then, to penetrate 35 provinces out of the 81 provinces nationwide.

“17 out of the 46 incumbent party-list groups lost in their reelection bid in the 2019 midterm elections.”

For all of these 17 party-list groups who will, in 2022, attempt to regain their lost seats, and for the 51 incumbent party-list groups who will seek reelection, and for all other party-list groups who will try their luck or skill, it is important to not only find the key to winning a seat in the party-list system but, also, to find out the areas that are locked already for others thereby making them very difficult to penetrate. Just where are these places for other party-list groups to avoid, and just what is the degree of difficulty in case any party-list group wants to proceed anyway?

Almost half of all the provinces in the country gave at least 20% of their votes to at least one party-list group.

Out of the 81 provinces in the country, 35 provinces gave at least a fifth of all of their party-list votes to at least one party-list group. This is almost half of all the provinces in the country already.

“35 provinces gave at least a fifth of all of their party-list votes to at least one party-list group.”

The threshold of 20% would, arguably, be enough to indicate that a party-list group has a solid foothold in the particular province, and may somehow call the particular province its bailiwick, or one of its bailiwicks if they likewise garnered at least the same percentage in another province or in other provinces. This is highlighted by the fact that there were 134 party-list groups that participated in the 2019 elections. This is like one party-list group getting 20% of the votes and the rest of the 133 party-list groups fighting for the remaining 80%. Let us see how it actually happened.

“The threshold of 20% would, arguably, be enough to indicate that a party-list group has a solid foothold in the particular province.”

More than a tenth of all the provinces in the country gave at least 50% of their votes to only one or two party-list groups.

Eight provinces gave at least 50% of their votes to only one party-list group, one of whom gave more than 80% of its votes to only one party-list group, and another of whom gave more than 60% of its votes to only one party-list group.

“Eight provinces gave at least 50% of their votes to only one party-list group.”

Three provinces gave at least 50% of their votes to only two party-list groups, one of whom gave more than 60% of its votes to only two party-list groups.

“Three provinces gave at least 50% of their votes to only two party-list groups.”

DUMPER PTDA cornered 81.07% of the votes in Davao Occidental. AKMA-PTM (37.89%) and KUSUG TAUSUG (25.10%) cornered 62.99% of the votes in Tawi-Tawi. KUSUG TAUSUG cornered 60.49% of the votes in Sulu. AN WARAY (31.42%) and TINGOG SINIRANGAN (27.96%) cornered 59.38% of the votes in Leyte. ALONA cornered 58.92% of the votes in Quirino. AKO BICOL cornered 56.72% of the votes in Albay. ABONO cornered 56.25% of the votes in La Union. ACT-CIS cornered 55.78% of the votes in Abra. TGP (29.89%) and AKO BICOL (26.30%) cornered 51.40% of the votes in Catanduanes. BAHAY cornered 50.42% of the votes in Camiguin. AKO BICOL cornered 50.09% of the votes in Camarines Sur.

These 11 provinces, therefore, were the most difficult to penetrate, as they have already given more than half of all of their votes to only one or two party-list groups. The rest of the other party-list groups (134 party-list candidates in 2019) had to settle and compete for the remaining less than half of the votes that were left in the province.

PARTY-LISTS THAT OBTAINED 50% OR MORE OF THE VOTES IN A PROVINCE

RANKPROVINCEPARTY-LIST/SVOTES%
1DAVAO OCCIDENTALDUMPER PTDA66,21081.07%
2TAWI-TAWIAKMA-PTM

KUSUG TAUSUG
35,025

23,204
37.89%
25.10%

62.99%
3SULUKUSUG TAUSUG110,18960.49%
4LEYTEAN WARAY

TINGOG SINIRANGAN
134,464

119,649
31.42%
27.96%

59.38%
5QUIRINOALONA34,06558.92%
6ALBAYAKO BIKOL230,69856.72%
7LA UNIONABONO146,64956.25%
8ABRAACT-CIS48,70155.78%
9CATANDUANESTGP

AKO BICOL
27,587

24,271
29.89%
26.30%

51.40%
10CAMIGUINBAHAY18,83550.42%
11CAMARINES SURAKO BICOL237,75350.09%

By the way, not counted in the list above are two cities that delivered at least 50% of their votes to only one party-list group: Naga City delivered 55.80% of its votes to AKO BICOL; Tacloban City delivered 54.03% of its votes to TINGOG SINIRANGAN.

Five provinces in the country gave at least 40% of their votes to only one or two party-list groups.

AKO BICOL cornered 45.83% of the votes in Sorsogon. AMIN cornered 45.39% of the votes Basilan. APEC (24.47%) and AN WARAY (20.56%) cornered 45.03% of the votes in Southern Leyte. AKO BICOL cornered 43.66% of the votes Camarines Norte. PHILRECA cornered 40.15% of the votes in Batanes.

These five provinces, therefore, were the second most difficult to penetrate, as they have already given almost half of all of their votes to only one or two party-list groups. The rest of the other party-list groups (134 party-list candidates in 2019) had to settle and compete for the remaining less than half of the votes that were left in the province.

PARTY-LISTS THAT OBTAINED 40% OR MORE OF THE VOTES IN A PROVINCE
(BUT LESS THAN 50%)

RANKPROVINCEPARTY-LISTVOTES%
12SORSOGONAKO BICOL98,72345.83%
13BASILANAMIN49,72245.39%
14SOUTHERN LEYTEAPEC

AN WARAY
31,650

26,593
24.47%
20.56%

45.03%
15CAMARINES NORTEAKO BICOL65,24843.66%
16BATANESPHILRECA1,75240.15%

By the way, not counted in the list above is one city that delivered at least 40% of its votes to only one party-list group: Cagayan de Oro City delivered 40.24% of its votes to ABAMIN.

More than a tenth of all the provinces in the country gave at least 30% of their votes to only one party-list group.

RECOBODA cornered 38.88% of the votes in Davao del Sur. AKMA-PTM cornered 37.89% of the votes Tawi-Tawi. PROBINSYANO AKO cornered 36.74% of the vote in Ilocos Norte. ALONA cornered 34.02% of the votes in Quezon. MATA cornered 32.21% of the votes in Marinduque. MATA cornered 31.66% of the votes in Misamis Occidental. AN WARAY cornered 31.42% of the votes in Leyte. LPGMA cornered 31.09% of the votes in Isabela. TUCP cornered 31.09% of the votes in North Cotabato. AAMBIS-OWA cornered 30.96% of the votes in Iloilo.

These 10 provinces, therefore, were the third most difficult to penetrate, as they have already given a third of all of their votes to only one party-list group. The rest of the other party-list groups (134 party-list candidates in 2019) had to settle and compete for the remaining less than half of the votes that were left in the province.

Please note, however, that two of these 10 have been previously mentioned in the list of provinces that gave away 50% of their votes to only one or two party-list groups.  

PARTY-LISTS THAT OBTAINED 30% OR MORE OF THE VOTES IN A PROVINCE
(BUT LESS THAN 40%)

RANKPROVINCEPARTY-LISTVOTES%
17DAVAO DEL SURRECOBODA73,06038.88%
2TAWI-TAWIAKMA-PTM35,02537.89%
18ILOCOS NORTEPROBINSYANO AKO73,64936.74%
19QUEZONALONA209,46234.02%
20MARINDUQUEMATA20,61532.21%
21MISAMIS OCCIDENTALMATA52,54231.66%
4LEYTEAN WARAY134,46431.42%
22ISABELALPGMA126,28131.09%
23NORTH COTABATOTUCP114,50131.09%
24ILOILOAAMBIS-OWA171,35630.96%

By the way, not counted in the list above are six cities that delivered at least 30% of their votes to only one party-list group: Dagupan City delivered 38.07% of its votes to INANG MAHAL; Marikina City delivered 35.83% of its votes to ATING KOOP; Tacloban City delivered 32.49% of its votes to AN WARAY; Bacolod City delivered 32.19% of its votes to ABANG LINGKOD; City of Santiago delivered 32.00% of its votes to PHILRECA; and Caloocan City delivered 31.12% of its votes to ACT-CIS.

More than a fifth of all the provinces in the country gave at least 20% of their votes to only one party-list group.

Aside from the 24 provinces already previously mentioned, enumerated below are 17 provinces that gave away at least 20% of their votes to only one party-list group. This is the fourth and last batch of provinces that were the most difficult to penetrate.

Please note, however, that three of these 17 have been previously mentioned in the list of provinces that gave away 50% of their votes to only one or two party-list groups, and one of these 17 has been previously mentioned in the list of provinces that gave away 40% of their votes to only one party-list group. 

PARTY-LISTS THAT OBTAINED 20% OR MORE OF THE VOTES IN A PROVINCE
(BUT LESS THAN 30%)

RANKPROVINCEPARTY-LISTVOTES%
9CATANDUANESTGP27,58729.89%
4LEYTETINGOG SINIRANGAN119,64927.96%
25SULTAN KUDARATRECOBODA53,75626.56%
9CATANDUANESAKO BICOL24,27126.30%
26NEGROS OCCIDENTALABANG LINGKOD146,55425.82%
27MAGUINDANAOALENG ENTREP87,74925.32%
2TAWI-TAWIKUSUG TAUSUG23,20425.10%
14SOUTHERN LEYTEAPEC31,65024.47%
28LANAO DEL SURBAHAY62,52924.06%
29BILIRANTINGOG SINIRANGAN11,58323.97%
30SURIGAO DEL SURCWS41,43323.85%
31PANGASINANABONO202,36623.09%
32NUEVA ECIJAGP163,46823.07%
33ILOCOS SURPHILRECA47,23322.46%
34COMPOSTELA VALLEYMARINO41,88222.13%
35SARANGANIRECOBODA30,56321.72%
14SOUTHERN LEYTEAN WARAY26,59320.56%

By the way, not counted in the list above are eight cities that delivered at least 20% of their votes to only one party-list group: Angeles City delivered 27.48% of its votes to ABEKA; Olongapo City delivered 26.78% of its votes to DIWA; Davao City delivered 26.61% of its votes to PBA; Navotas City delivered 23.71% of its votes to ACT-CIS; Valenzuela City delivered 21.91% of its votes to ALAY BUHAY; Ormoc City delivered 20.58% of its votes to AN WARAY; and Malabon City delivered 20.41% of its votes to ACT-CIS.

Although delivering less than 20%, owing to the fact that ACT-CIS emerged as the topnotcher of the 2019 party-list elections, it would be interesting to note that the following cites delivered almost 20% of its votes to ACT-CIS: Muntinlupa City delivered 19.66% of its votes; City of Manila delivered 19.63% of its votes; Mandaluyong City delivered 19.47% of its votes; and San Juan City delivered 19.29% of its votes.

LOCKED

In closing, to reiterate, out of the 81 provinces in the country, 35 provinces gave at least a fifth of all of their party-list votes to at least one party-list group. This is almost half of all the provinces in the country already giving at least 20% of their votes to only one party-list group.

But, of course, there were provinces that gave more: more than 30%, more than 40%, more than 50%, more than 60%, and even one province giving away more than 80%, to only one party-list group.

In addition, there were also cities that delivered a large percentage of their votes to only one party-list group: two delivering more than 50%, one delivering more than 40%, six delivering more than 30%, and eight delivering more than 20%.

Therefore, we cannot help but emphasize that it is important to find out the areas that are locked already for others thereby making them very difficult to penetrate.

“It is important to find out the areas that are locked already for others thereby making them very difficult to penetrate.”

As we have shown in all of the figures presented above, party-list groups have already gained a solid foothold in almost half of all the provinces in the country, as well as in several cities.   

These are the places for other party-list groups to avoid or, at the very least, for them to proceed forewarned.   

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